Page 2 - laco20200410modeling
P. 2
About the Effort
Los Angeles County DHS, under the guidance of Dr. Ghaly, assembled a multidisciplinary team of
clinical, epidemiological, and statistical modeling experts led by Roger J. Lewis, MD, PhD, the Chair
of Emergency Medicine at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center in Torrance and an accomplished
statistician.
Two-pronged approach: The modeling team was tasked with
o Taking available data and making the best possible predictions regarding the spread of COVID-
19 in Los Angeles County and the associated demand for hospital-based care including hospital
beds, intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and ventilators.
o Assessing the effectiveness of current physical distancing efforts in slowing the spread of
COVID-19 and “flattening the curve.”
EMBARGOED UNTIL APRIL 10 @ 1 PM PT
